Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)New Bridge Meadow Stadium, Hwlffordd / Haverfordwest, Pembrokeshie
The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Haverfordwest County AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town?
Caernarfon Town starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,914 vs 1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Haverfordwest County AFC have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | The New Saints(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Haverfordwest County AFC win(s), 5 draw(s), 0 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 2-2 Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Haverfordwest County AFC 1-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| May 18, 2025 | Haverfordwest County AFC 3-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Haverfordwest County AFC 1-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-1 Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Haverfordwest County AFC 0-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC on Nov 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Haverfordwest County AFC score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Haverfordwest County AFC sit 14th in Premier League (0 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Haverfordwest County AFC.
- Where and when is Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at New Bridge Meadow Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.