Trefelin vs Cardiff MET: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Ynys Park, Cwmafan
The Footlab model makes Trefelin the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Cardiff MET. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trefelin vs Cardiff MET?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Trefelin (1,761) and Cardiff MET (1,807).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trefelin have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Cardiff MET have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Holywell(home) | 6-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Town United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Trefelin score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff MET score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trefelin | 2.6 | 1.4 | 7 | 3/15 | 11/15 |
| Cardiff MET | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trefelin sit 16th in Premier League (0 points from 4 matches) and Cardiff MET sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trefelin vs Cardiff MET?
- The Footlab model makes Trefelin the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Cardiff MET.
- Where and when is Trefelin vs Cardiff MET played?
- Trefelin vs Cardiff MET is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Ynys Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.