Penybont vs Barry Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)SDM Glass Stadium, Bridgend, Bridgend County Borough
The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Penybont. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penybont vs Barry Town?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Penybont (1,878) and Barry Town (1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penybont have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Barry Town have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff MET(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gloucester City(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Penybont win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Barry Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Penybont 0-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Barry Town 1-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Penybont 1-1 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Barry Town 2-3 Penybont | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Barry Town 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Barry Town 3-2 Penybont | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Penybont vs Barry Town on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Barry Town score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Barry Town | 1.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penybont sit 3rd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Barry Town sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penybont vs Barry Town?
- The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Penybont.
- Where and when is Penybont vs Barry Town played?
- Penybont vs Barry Town is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at SDM Glass Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.