Cardiff vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Cardiff. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Cardiff (2,024) and Middlesbrough (2,009).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cardiff vs Middlesbrough
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cardiff
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Salech
- 18A. Robertson
- 11O. Tanner
- 8J. Moylan
- 27J. Colwill
- 45Cian Ashford
- 38P. Ng
- 3J. Bagan
- 4G. Osho
- 48D. Lawlor
- 1N. Trott
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:03 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Middlesbrough have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Watford(home) | 5-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cardiff win, 1 draw, 4 Middlesbrough wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Cardiff 0-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Cardiff 1-4 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Middlesbrough 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Cardiff 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Middlesbrough 2-3 Cardiff | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff on Jan 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 18th in Championship (10 points from 10 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 2nd (21 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Cardiff.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Middlesbrough played?
- Cardiff vs Middlesbrough is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.