Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Cardiff. The most likely score is 1-1. If Middlesbrough wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,356 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
On Elo ratings, Middlesbrough has 2,044 points and Cardiff 2,013.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Middlesbrough
4-2-3-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 10A. Morris
- 8R. McGree
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 6S. Berhalter
- 9T. Conway
- 2C. Brittain
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 30Neto Borges
- 1R. Vítek
Cardiff
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Salech
- 18A. Robertson
- 11O. Tanner
- 8J. Moylan
- 27J. Colwill
- 45Cian Ashford
- 38P. Ng
- 3J. Bagan
- 4G. Osho
- 5K. Bielik
- 1N. Trott
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 04:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Cardiff have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Middlesbrough wins, 1 draw, 1 Cardiff win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Cardiff 0-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Cardiff 1-4 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Middlesbrough 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Cardiff 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Middlesbrough 2-3 Cardiff | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff on Jan 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Middlesbrough score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff score 2.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Cardiff | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Middlesbrough sit 2nd in Championship (18 points from 9 matches) and Cardiff sit 21st (7 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 18 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
A question about Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Cardiff.
- Where and when is Middlesbrough vs Cardiff played?
- Middlesbrough vs Cardiff is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Riverside Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.