Bolton vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Bolton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southampton wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,920 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bolton vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (2,124 vs 1,994).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bolton vs Southampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bolton
4-2-3-1- 10S. Dalby
- 8J. Sheehan
- 22Gaizka Larrazabal
- 11T. Gale
- 17A. Ito
- 21E. Erhahon
- 18E. Toal
- 14A. Famewo
- 5L. Brunt
- 27Luca Stephenson
- 31G. Bazunu
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 26Cameron Bragg
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 3R. Manning
- 1Daniel Peretz
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bolton have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Southampton have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Bolton wins, 1 draw, 0 Southampton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Southampton 0-0 Bolton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Bolton on Oct 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bolton score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Southampton | 1.8 | 1.0 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bolton sit 15th in Championship (14 points from 11 matches) and Southampton sit 8th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
A question about Bolton vs Southampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bolton vs Southampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Bolton.
- Where and when is Bolton vs Southampton played?
- Bolton vs Southampton is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Toughsheet Community Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.