Cardiff vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cardiff wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Cardiff (1,994) and Birmingham (2,006).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cardiff vs Birmingham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cardiff
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Salech
- 18A. Robertson
- 11O. Tanner
- 8J. Moylan
- 16C. Willock
- 27J. Colwill
- 38P. Ng
- 3J. Bagan
- 4G. Osho
- 5K. Bielik
- 1N. Trott
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Birmingham have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 2, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cardiff wins, 1 draw, 1 Birmingham win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Cardiff 0-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Birmingham 1-3 Cardiff | League Cup |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Birmingham 0-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Aug 13, 2022 | Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Cardiff 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham vs Cardiff on Apr 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.2 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 21st in Championship (7 points from 8 matches) and Birmingham sit 10th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
A question about Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cardiff the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Birmingham played?
- Cardiff vs Birmingham is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.