Cardiff vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Cardiff (2,005) and Birmingham (1,927).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cardiff win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Birmingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | Birmingham 0-1 Cardiff | Championship |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Cardiff 0-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Birmingham 1-3 Cardiff | League Cup |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Birmingham 0-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Aug 13, 2022 | Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Cardiff 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham vs Cardiff on Apr 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 12th in Championship (2 points from 2 matches) and Birmingham sit 13th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Birmingham played?
- Cardiff vs Birmingham is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.