Carrarese vs Empoli: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
The Footlab model makes Carrarese the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Empoli. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carrarese vs Empoli?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Carrarese (1,860) and Empoli (1,867).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carrarese have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Empoli have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| May 1, 2026 | Cesena(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Livorno(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spezia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Virtus Entella(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 8, 2026 | Monza(away) | 2-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Carrarese win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Empoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Carrarese 3-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Empoli 2-2 Carrarese | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Carrarese score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Empoli score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Empoli | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carrarese sit 12th in Serie B (44 points from 38 matches) and Empoli sit 15th (41 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carrarese | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 47 | 52 | 44 |
| 15 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 47 | 54 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carrarese vs Empoli?
- The Footlab model makes Carrarese the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Empoli.
- Where and when is Carrarese vs Empoli played?
- Carrarese vs Empoli is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio dei Marmi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.