Palermo vs Carrarese: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo
The Footlab model makes Palermo the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Carrarese. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palermo vs Carrarese?
Palermo starts as the favourite with a 172-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,796).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palermo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Carrarese have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Juve Stabia(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Palermo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Carrarese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Carrarese 0-1 Palermo | Serie B |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Palermo 5-0 Carrarese | Serie B |
| May 13, 2025 | Palermo 1-1 Carrarese | Serie B |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Carrarese 1-0 Palermo | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Palermo score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Carrarese score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Carrarese | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palermo sit 8th in Serie B (3 points from 1 matches) and Carrarese sit 14th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Palermo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Carrarese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palermo vs Carrarese?
- The Footlab model makes Palermo the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Carrarese.
- Where and when is Palermo vs Carrarese played?
- Palermo vs Carrarese is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Renzo Barbera, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.