Carrarese vs Modena: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
The Footlab model makes Modena the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Carrarese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carrarese vs Modena?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Carrarese (1,816) and Modena (1,883).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carrarese have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Modena have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torino(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 8, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Benevento(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 2-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Trento(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Carrarese win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Modena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Modena 2-0 Carrarese | Serie B |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Carrarese 0-0 Modena | Serie B |
| May 4, 2025 | Carrarese 2-1 Modena | Serie B |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Modena 2-0 Carrarese | Serie B |
| Mar 12, 2022 | Carrarese 2-3 Modena | Serie C - Girone B |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Modena 2-0 Carrarese | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Carrarese score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Modena score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Modena | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carrarese sit 14th in Serie B (0 points from 1 matches) and Modena sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Modena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Carrarese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carrarese vs Modena?
- The Footlab model makes Modena the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Carrarese.
- Where and when is Carrarese vs Modena played?
- Carrarese vs Modena is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio dei Marmi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.