Cesena vs Avellino: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
The Footlab model makes Cesena the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Avellino. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cesena vs Avellino?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Cesena (1,824) and Avellino (1,865).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cesena have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Avellino have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forli(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Monza(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 3-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sambenedettese(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cesena win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Avellino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Avellino 3-1 Cesena | Serie B |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Cesena 3-0 Avellino | Serie B |
| Feb 10, 2018 | Avellino 1-1 Cesena | Serie B |
| Sep 15, 2017 | Cesena 3-1 Avellino | Serie B |
| Apr 22, 2017 | Avellino 1-1 Cesena | Serie B |
| Nov 26, 2016 | Cesena 3-0 Avellino | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Cesena score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Avellino score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Avellino | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cesena sit 10th in Serie B (1 points from 1 matches) and Avellino sit 13th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cesena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Avellino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cesena vs Avellino?
- The Footlab model makes Cesena the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Avellino.
- Where and when is Cesena vs Avellino played?
- Cesena vs Avellino is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.