Arouca vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for GIL Vicente. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Arouca (2,141) and GIL Vicente (2,133).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs GIL Vicente
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1- 23Héctor Hernández
- 20Gil Pinto Martins
- 77Murilo
- 12A. Lausen
- 86Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 10Santi García
- 39Jonathan Buatu
- 4M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 47Ricardo Esgaio
- 45David Moreira
- 30Lucão
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; GIL Vicente have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arouca wins, 4 draws, 0 GIL Vicente wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Arouca 2-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | GIL Vicente 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 27, 2024 | Arouca 1-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 26, 2024 | GIL Vicente 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Arouca 3-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Arouca on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (14 points from 8 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 7th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
A question about Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for GIL Vicente.
- Where and when is Arouca vs GIL Vicente played?
- Arouca vs GIL Vicente is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.