Castellanzese vs Pistoiese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 27Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, Castellanza
The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Castellanzese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pistoiese wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,604 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellanzese vs Pistoiese?
Pistoiese starts as the favourite with a 213-point Elo edge (1,985 vs 1,772).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castellanzese vs Pistoiese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castellanzese
Not enough data to predict the Castellanzese lineup.
Pistoiese
Not enough data to predict the Pistoiese lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 03:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellanzese have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pistoiese have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Castellanzese(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pavia(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sestri Levante(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Castellanzese wins, 0 draws, 1 Pistoiese win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Pistoiese 4-2 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone D |
Last archived meeting: Pistoiese vs Castellanzese on Nov 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castellanzese score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Pistoiese score 2.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellanzese | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Pistoiese | 2.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castellanzese sit 4th in Serie D - Girone D (19 points from 10 matches) and Pistoiese sit 1st (27 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 27 |
| 4 | Castellanzese | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 19 |
A question about Castellanzese vs Pistoiese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellanzese vs Pistoiese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Castellanzese.
- Where and when is Castellanzese vs Pistoiese played?
- Castellanzese vs Pistoiese is played on March 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.