Pistoiese vs Pro Patria: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 28Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Melani, Pistoia
The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Pro Patria. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pistoiese vs Pro Patria?
Pistoiese starts as the favourite with a 249-point Elo edge (1,954 vs 1,704).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pistoiese vs Pro Patria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pistoiese
Not enough data to predict the Pistoiese lineup.
Pro Patria
4-3-3- 10F. Mastroianni
- 25D. Ferri
- 70J. Desogus
- 17G. Tunjov
- 23J. Frosali
- 27L. Giudici
- 6A. Sassaro
- 39M. Motolese
- 20C. Mora
- 31G. Felicioli
- 28A. Sala
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 08:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pistoiese have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Pro Patria have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pavia(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sestri Levante(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 5-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Varesina(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Solbiatese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Pistoiese win, 2 draws, 2 Pro Patria wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2021 | Pistoiese 1-2 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2020 | Pro Patria 0-0 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Pro Patria 1-1 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
| Dec 30, 2018 | Pistoiese 3-1 Pro Patria | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 16, 2018 | Pro Patria 2-1 Pistoiese | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Pistoiese vs Pro Patria on Feb 7, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Pistoiese score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pro Patria score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistoiese | 1.7 | 0.5 | 10 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Pro Patria | 2.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pistoiese sit 1st in Serie D - Girone D (24 points from 8 matches) and Pro Patria sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 19 |
A question about Pistoiese vs Pro Patria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pistoiese vs Pro Patria?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Pro Patria.
- Where and when is Pistoiese vs Pro Patria played?
- Pistoiese vs Pro Patria is played on March 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Melani, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.