Pro Patria vs Pavia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 27Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Speroni, Busto Arsizio
The Footlab AI model makes Pro Patria the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pro Patria wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Patria vs Pavia?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Pro Patria (1,596) and Pavia (1,584).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pro Patria vs Pavia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pro Patria
4-3-3- 10F. Mastroianni
- 25D. Ferri
- 70J. Desogus
- 17G. Tunjov
- 23J. Frosali
- 27L. Giudici
- 6A. Sassaro
- 39M. Motolese
- 20C. Mora
- 31G. Felicioli
- 28A. Sala
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Patria have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Pavia have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 5-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Varesina(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Solbiatese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Arconatese(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Patria score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Patria | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pro Patria sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone D (16 points from 7 matches) and Pavia sit 10th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pro Patria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
A question about Pro Patria vs Pavia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Patria vs Pavia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pro Patria the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Pro Patria vs Pavia played?
- Pro Patria vs Pavia is played on March 14, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Speroni, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.