Ceara vs Ferroviario: prediction and stats
Cearense - 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on January 15, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza, Ceará
The Footlab AI model makes Ceara the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Ferroviario. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ceara wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ceara vs Ferroviario?
Ceara starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,755 vs 1,632).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ceara vs Ferroviario
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ceara
4-2-3-1- 73Saulo Mineiro
- 81Joao Gabriel
- 25Vinicius Zanocelo
- 8Matheus Araújo
- 60Enzo
- 29Vina
- 18Júlio
- 12Sanchez
- 4Luiz Otávio
- 13Luiz Otávio
- 1Richard
Ferroviario
Not enough data to predict the Ferroviario lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 03:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ceara have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Ferroviario have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 2-2 | Serie B |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Goiatuba EC(home) | 1-2 | Serie D |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Goiatuba EC(away) | 0-3 | Serie D |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Central SC(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Central SC(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Fluminense PI(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ceara wins, 2 draws, 1 Ferroviario win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Ferroviario 1-5 Ceara | Cearense - 1 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Ferroviario 1-2 Ceara | Cearense - 1 |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Ceara 1-1 Ferroviario | Cearense - 1 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Ferroviario 2-3 Ceara | Cearense - 1 |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Ferroviario 1-1 Ceara | Cearense - 1 |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Ferroviario 3-0 Ceara | Copa do Nordeste |
How many goals should we expect?
Ceara score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ferroviario score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Ferroviario | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ceara sit 1st in Cearense - 1 (10 points from 4 matches) and Ferroviario sit 2nd (8 points from 4 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2026 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Ferroviario | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
A question about Ceara vs Ferroviario?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ceara vs Ferroviario?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ceara the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Ferroviario.
- Where and when is Ceara vs Ferroviario played?
- Ceara vs Ferroviario is played on January 15, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Cearense - 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.