Celta de Vigo III vs Barco: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro, Vigo
The Footlab model makes Celta de Vigo III the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Barco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta de Vigo III vs Barco?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Celta de Vigo III (1,797) and Barco (1,733).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta de Vigo III have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Barco have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Noia(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Villalbés(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barbadás(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Alondras(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | CD Lugo B(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Estradense(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Somozas(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Coruña(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Arosa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Celta de Vigo III win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Barco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Celta de Vigo III 4-2 Barco | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Barco 1-2 Celta de Vigo III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Barco 1-0 Celta de Vigo III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | Celta de Vigo III 1-1 Barco | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Celta de Vigo III vs Barco on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celta de Vigo III score 2.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Barco score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta de Vigo III | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Barco | 1.4 | 1.4 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta de Vigo III sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 (51 points from 34 matches) and Barco sit 11th (46 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celta de Vigo III | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 57 | 42 | 51 |
| 11 | Barco | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 35 | 41 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta de Vigo III vs Barco?
- The Footlab model makes Celta de Vigo III the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Barco.
- Where and when is Celta de Vigo III vs Barco played?
- Celta de Vigo III vs Barco is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.