Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Celta Vigo (2,118) and Real Sociedad (2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Celta Vigo win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Real Sociedad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Real Sociedad 3-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| May 13, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Celta Vigo 2-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Celta Vigo 0-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 13th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 19th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad played?
- Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad is played on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.