Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaMatchday 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,399 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (2,361 vs 2,182).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 19J. Álvarez
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 10Álex Baena
- 20G. Simeone
- 6Koke
- 17D. Hancko
- 18Marc Pubill
- 22Álex Grimaldo
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13J. Oblak
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 9I. Williams
- 7Álex Berenguer
- 28Peio Canales
- 10Nico Williams
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 23Robert Navarro
- 15Hugo Rincón
- 17Yuri
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 3Dani Vivian
- 1Unai Simón
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 06:55 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Athletic Club have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Bayern München(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Levante(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Prat(away) | 6-1 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Levante(away) | 1-3 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atletico Madrid wins, 0 draws, 2 Athletic Club wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 3-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Athletic Club 0-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 3-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Athletic Club | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (28 points from 12 matches) and Athletic Club sit 7th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
A question about Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club is played on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.