Alaves vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 265-point Elo edge (2,339 vs 2,075).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Real Madrid have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Alaves win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Real Madrid 3-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| May 14, 2024 | Real Madrid 5-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Alaves on Apr 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 2nd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Real Madrid sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Real Madrid played?
- Alaves vs Real Madrid is played on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.