Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab AI model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Union St. Gilloise wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,484 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise starts as the favourite with a 234-point Elo edge (2,329 vs 2,095).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 16Hugo González
- 17Javi Rueda
- 14Aleix Febas
- 6I. Moriba
- 5Sergio Carreira
- 20Javi Rodríguez
- 18Yoel Lago
- 3Marcos Alonso
- 13I. Radu
Known absences
Álvaro NúñezOut · Groin injury- Borja IglesiasOut · Calf injury
C. StarfeltOut · Muscle injury
H. CuencaOut · Muscle injury
J. El AbdellaouiOut · Knee injury- Miguel RománOut · Knee injury
Union St. Gilloise
3-1-4-2- 38R. Mofokeng
- 30R. Florucz
- 6K. Van de Perre
- 27L. Patris
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho
- 23B. Zeneli
- 28D. Olaru
- 29M. Sylla
- 4N. Chibani
- 55N. Havenaar
- 12H. Koffi
Known absences
A. Ait El HadjOut · Off the roster- I. HurteventOut · Knock
I. PavlićOut · Off the roster
K. Mac AllisterOut · Knee injury
M. BiondicOut · Knee injury
O. KričfalušiOut · Knock- R. SchoofsOut · Knock
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 08:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Union St. Gilloise have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | SK Beveren(away) | 2-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Cercle Brugge(home) | 5-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nijlen(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Union St. Gilloise score 2.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.8 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 25th in UEFA Europa League (3 points from 3 matches) and Union St. Gilloise sit 6th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
A question about Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise?
- The Footlab AI model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise played?
- Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise is played on November 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.