Real Sociedad vs Lyon: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 5, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lyon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Sociedad wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,920 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Real Sociedad (2,119) and Lyon (2,212).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Sociedad vs Lyon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 24L. Sučić
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 21Y. Herrera
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 12J. Ochieng
- 6Jon Martín
- 19M. Sarr
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 5Zubeldia
- 13Unai Marrero
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 11Keito Nakamura
- 99N. Nartey
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 20F. Bacher
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 08:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Lyon have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nice(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Real Sociedad wins, 0 draws, 0 Lyon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2013 | Real Sociedad 2-0 Lyon | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 20, 2013 | Lyon 0-2 Real Sociedad | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Lyon on Aug 28, 2013
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Lyon | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad sit 22nd in UEFA Europa League (1 point from 2 matches) and Lyon sit 8th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
A question about Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Lyon played?
- Real Sociedad vs Lyon is played on November 5, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.