Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC)Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?
Newcastle Jets starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,766).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Central Coast Mariners have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Central Coast Mariners win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Newcastle Jets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 3-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 6-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 2-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-2 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Central Coast Mariners sit 9th in A-League (32 points from 26 matches) and Newcastle Jets sit 1st (48 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at Industree Group Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.