Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC)Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newcastle Jets wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?
Newcastle Jets starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,861 vs 1,738).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Central Coast Mariners
4-2-3-1- 22A. De Lima
- 72A. Auglah
- 9O. Lavale
- 8C. Donnell
- 37B. Brandtman
- 41Shumba Mutokoyi
- 5L. Mauragis
- 15S. Roux
- 12Noah McCann
- 26B. Tapp
- 30A. Redmayne
Known absences
K. PopovicOut · Not in squad
Newcastle Jets
4-1-4-1- 9N. Vergos
- 14M. Burgess
- 28W. Dobson
- 10Z. Clough
- 6Z. Schreiber
- 43X. Bertoncello
- 23D. Wilmering
- 5J. Shaughnessy
- 22J. Bertolissio
- 39T. Aquilina
- 1J. Delianov
Known absences
- A. BadolatoOut · Knee injury
- O. FryerOut · Knee injury
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Central Coast Mariners have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-7 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Central Coast Mariners wins, 2 draws, 2 Newcastle Jets wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 3-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 6-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 2-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-2 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Central Coast Mariners score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Central Coast Mariners sit 9th in A-League (32 points from 26 matches) and Newcastle Jets sit 1st (48 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
A question about Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at Industree Group Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.