Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,907 vs 1,772).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Melbourne Victory win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 5-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 1-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.