Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,909 vs 1,726).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 7I. Eze
- 3C. Piper
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8P. Retre
- 20R. Najjarine
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 15I. Hughes
- 6T. Payne
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 1J. Oluwayemi
Melbourne Victory
4-2-3-1- 44C. Nduka
- 8J. Valadon
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 23K. Jelacic
- 6L. D'Arrigo
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 16J. Inserra
- 15T. Lockyer
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix wins, 0 draws, 4 Melbourne Victory wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 0-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 5-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 1-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
A question about Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.