Cerro vs Cerro Largo: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 11Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo
The Footlab AI model makes Cerro the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Cerro Largo. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerro vs Cerro Largo?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Cerro (1,711) and Cerro Largo (1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cerro vs Cerro Largo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cerro
4-3-3- 14E. Rodríguez
- 28A. Cambón
- 9B. Morales
- 10B. Alemán
- 5A. Macelli
- 31J. Amaro
- 16J. Guasone
- 22D. Suárez
- 21N. Arena
- 17Gianni Rodríguez
- 12Y. Irrazábal
Cerro Largo
4-3-2-1- 29B. Lozano
- 10Axel Michele Pandiani
- 15A. Assis
- 8M. García
- 5S. Marcel
- 37A. Segovia
- 20S. Franca
- 17A. Hernández
- 3A. Piegas
- 28N. Ramos
- 12P. González
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerro have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cerro Largo have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Juventud(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(home) | 1-2 | Copa Uruguay |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Penarol(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Danubio(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Rentistas(home) | 1-0 | Copa Uruguay |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Club Nacional(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cerro win, 2 draws, 3 Cerro Largo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Cerro Largo 2-0 Cerro | Primera División |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Cerro Largo 1-1 Cerro | Primera División |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Cerro 0-1 Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Cerro 2-1 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Cerro Largo 0-0 Cerro | Primera División |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Cerro Largo 3-1 Cerro | Primera División - Clausura |
How many goals should we expect?
Cerro score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cerro Largo score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Cerro Largo | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerro sit 7th in Primera División (17 points from 10 matches) and Cerro Largo sit 15th (5 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cerro | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 17 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 5 |
A question about Cerro vs Cerro Largo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerro vs Cerro Largo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cerro the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Cerro Largo.
- Where and when is Cerro vs Cerro Largo played?
- Cerro vs Cerro Largo is played on October 16, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.