Progreso vs Juventud: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
The Footlab AI model makes Juventud the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Progreso. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,317 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progreso vs Juventud?
Juventud starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,834 vs 1,682).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Progreso vs Juventud
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Progreso
4-2-3-1- 15M. Martin
- 16G. Trasante
- 5A. Pinheiro
- 25R. Cristóbal
- 18G. Silva
- 4L. Couture
- 40A. Cougo
- 6M. Saravia
- 24E. Álvarez
- 21S. Bruschi
- 1R. Bacchia
Juventud
4-3-1-2- 15A. Cruz
- 7A. Alaniz
- 37R. Peralta
- 10B. Larregui
- 26G. Pereiro
- 22R. Chagas
- 24F. Barrandeguy
- 14L. Roldán
- 8K. Rolón
- 2P. Pernicone
- 1S. Sosa
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 05:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progreso have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Juventud have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Penarol(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Club Nacional(home) | 0-1 | Copa Uruguay |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Plaza Colonia(away) | 1-0 | Copa Uruguay |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Progreso win, 1 draw, 4 Juventud wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Juventud 2-0 Progreso | Primera División |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Juventud 1-0 Progreso | Primera División |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Juventud 0-1 Progreso | Copa De La Liga Auf |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Juventud 1-1 Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Juventud 2-0 Progreso | Primera División |
| May 18, 2025 | Progreso 1-2 Juventud | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
Progreso score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Juventud score 1.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Juventud | 1.1 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Progreso sit 9th in Primera División (13 points from 10 matches) and Juventud sit 6th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Juventud | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Progreso | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
A question about Progreso vs Juventud?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progreso vs Juventud?
- The Footlab AI model makes Juventud the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Progreso.
- Where and when is Progreso vs Juventud played?
- Progreso vs Juventud is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Abraham Paladino, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.