Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Changchun's People Stadium, Changchun
The Footlab model makes Yanbian Longding the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Changchun Yatai. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Changchun Yatai (1,382) and Yanbian Longding (1,461).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Changchun Yatai have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Yanbian Longding have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dongguan United(home) | 6-0 | League One |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Shaanxi Union(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Suzhou Dongwu(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hebei Kungfu(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nanjing City(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ningbo Professional(away) | 3-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(home) | 3-1 | League One |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shenzhen Juniors(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nanjing City(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Meizhou Kejia(home) | 2-1 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Changchun Yatai win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Yanbian Longding win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Yanbian Longding 2-2 Changchun Yatai | League One |
Last archived meeting: Yanbian Longding vs Changchun Yatai on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Changchun Yatai score 1.8 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Yanbian Longding score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changchun Yatai | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| Yanbian Longding | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Changchun Yatai sit 9th in League One (22 points from 19 matches) and Yanbian Longding sit 3rd (35 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Yanbian Longding | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 18 | 35 |
| 9 | Changchun Yatai | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding?
- The Footlab model makes Yanbian Longding the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Changchun Yatai.
- Where and when is Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding played?
- Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding is played on October 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Changchun's People Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.