Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Meizhou Kejia: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center, Harbin
The Footlab model makes Heilongjiang Lava Spring the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Meizhou Kejia. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Meizhou Kejia?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1,338) and Meizhou Kejia (1,306).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heilongjiang Lava Spring have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Meizhou Kejia have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hebei Kungfu(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nanjing City(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dalian Huayi(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nantong Zhiyun(away) | 1-5 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen(away) | 4-4 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guangzhou E-Power(home) | 1-5 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen(away) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dongguan United(home) | 3-2 | League One |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Suzhou Dongwu(away) | 0-1 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Yanbian Longding(away) | 1-2 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Heilongjiang Lava Spring win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Meizhou Kejia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Aug 6, 2021 | Meizhou Kejia 2-3 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Jul 16, 2021 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-2 Meizhou Kejia | League One |
| Oct 19, 2019 | Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
| Jun 15, 2019 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-1 Meizhou Kejia | League One |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring | League One |
Last archived meeting: Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heilongjiang Lava Spring score 1.6 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Meizhou Kejia score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Meizhou Kejia | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heilongjiang Lava Spring sit 10th in League One (22 points from 20 matches) and Meizhou Kejia sit 15th (11 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 38 | 22 |
| 15 | Meizhou Kejia | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 40 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Meizhou Kejia?
- The Footlab model makes Heilongjiang Lava Spring the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Meizhou Kejia.
- Where and when is Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Meizhou Kejia played?
- Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Meizhou Kejia is played on October 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.