Dongguan United vs Guangxi Hengchen: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Guangxi Hengchen the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 10% for Dongguan United. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dongguan United vs Guangxi Hengchen?
Guangxi Hengchen starts as the favourite with a 293-point Elo edge (1,514 vs 1,221).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dongguan United have 0 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats; Guangxi Hengchen have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Changchun Yatai(away) | 0-6 | League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Hebei Kungfu(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Meizhou Kejia(away) | 2-3 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guangzhou E-Power(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Wuxi Wugou(home) | 0-2 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Suzhou Dongwu(home) | 3-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Meizhou Kejia(home) | 1-0 | League One |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Guangzhou E-Power(away) | 0-2 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ningbo Professional(away) | 4-2 | League One |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring(home) | 4-4 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Dongguan United win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Guangxi Hengchen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Guangxi Hengchen 3-3 Dongguan United | League One |
Last archived meeting: Guangxi Hengchen vs Dongguan United on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dongguan United score 0.9 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guangxi Hengchen score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dongguan United | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Guangxi Hengchen | 2.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dongguan United sit 16th in League One (11 points from 20 matches) and Guangxi Hengchen sit 5th (33 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Guangxi Hengchen | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 24 | 33 |
| 16 | Dongguan United | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 43 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dongguan United vs Guangxi Hengchen?
- The Footlab model makes Guangxi Hengchen the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 10% for Dongguan United.
- Where and when is Dongguan United vs Guangxi Hengchen played?
- Dongguan United vs Guangxi Hengchen is played on October 7, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC), in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.