Charleroi vs KV Mechelen: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC)Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
The Footlab model makes Charleroi the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for KV Mechelen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Charleroi (1,977) and KV Mechelen (1,894).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Charleroi have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; KV Mechelen have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lommel United(away) | 1-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 3-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Seraing United(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Standard Liege(home) | 3-3 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gent(away) | 0-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunkerque(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Charleroi win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 KV Mechelen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | KV Mechelen 1-0 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Charleroi 2-0 KV Mechelen | Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Charleroi 0-2 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| May 18, 2025 | KV Mechelen 1-1 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Charleroi 3-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Charleroi 0-1 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
Last archived meeting: KV Mechelen vs Charleroi on Dec 7, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Charleroi score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; KV Mechelen score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| KV Mechelen | 1.1 | 2.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Charleroi sit 3rd in Jupiler Pro League (6 points from 2 matches) and KV Mechelen sit 14th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charleroi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
- The Footlab model makes Charleroi the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for KV Mechelen.
- Where and when is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen played?
- Charleroi vs KV Mechelen is played on August 22, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.