Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 25Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Treinos do Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
The Footlab AI model makes Chaves II the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Ponte da Barca. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca?
On Elo ratings, Chaves II has 1,905 points and Ponte da Barca 1,811.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chaves II
Not enough data to predict the Chaves II lineup.
Ponte da Barca
Not enough data to predict the Ponte da Barca lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves II have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Ponte da Barca have 2, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brito(away) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rebordosa(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rebordosa(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bragança(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Os Limianos(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Montalegre(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves II score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ponte da Barca score 0.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves II | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Ponte da Barca | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 3/10 | 4/10 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves II sit 3rd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (9 points from 4 matches) and Ponte da Barca sit 11th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chaves II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
A question about Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chaves II the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Ponte da Barca.
- Where and when is Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca played?
- Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Treinos do Municipal de Chaves, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.