Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 25Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Treinos do Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
The Footlab model makes Chaves II the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Ponte da Barca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Chaves II (1,817) and Ponte da Barca (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves II have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Ponte da Barca have 2, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rebordosa(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Os Limianos(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vila Meã(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Merelinense(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Estarreja(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Montalegre(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves II score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ponte da Barca score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves II | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Ponte da Barca | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3 | 2/5 | 2/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves II sit 10th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (3 points from 2 matches) and Ponte da Barca sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ponte da Barca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Chaves II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca?
- The Footlab model makes Chaves II the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Ponte da Barca.
- Where and when is Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca played?
- Chaves II vs Ponte da Barca is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Treinos do Municipal de Chaves, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.