Chelmsford City vs Chesham United: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 26Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Melbourne Stadium, Chelmsford, Essex
The Footlab model makes Chelmsford City the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Chesham United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelmsford City vs Chesham United?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Chelmsford City (1,874) and Chesham United (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelmsford City have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Chesham United have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Folkestone Invicta(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Eastbourne Borough(home) | 1-3 | National League - South |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chesham United(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walton & Hersham(home) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Braintree(away) | 2-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(away) | 0-3 | National League - South |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Chertsey Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Chelmsford City win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Chesham United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chesham United 0-2 Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Chelmsford City 2-1 Chesham United | National League - South |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Chelmsford City 1-1 Chesham United | National League - South |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Chesham United 2-2 Chelmsford City | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Chesham United vs Chelmsford City on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelmsford City score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Chesham United score 1.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford City | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Chesham United | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelmsford City sit 17th in National League - South (3 points from 3 matches) and Chesham United sit 18th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Chelmsford City | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Chesham United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelmsford City vs Chesham United?
- The Footlab model makes Chelmsford City the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Chesham United.
- Where and when is Chelmsford City vs Chesham United played?
- Chelmsford City vs Chesham United is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Melbourne Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.