Cheltenham vs Oxford United: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 1Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Oxford United the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Cheltenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cheltenham vs Oxford United?
Oxford United starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,825 vs 1,675).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cheltenham have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Oxford United have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cheltenham win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Oxford United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | Oxford United 2-1 Cheltenham | League One |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Cheltenham 2-0 Oxford United | League One |
| Apr 25, 2023 | Oxford United 4-0 Cheltenham | League One |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Cheltenham 1-2 Oxford United | League One |
| Jan 1, 2022 | Oxford United 1-1 Cheltenham | League One |
| Sep 18, 2021 | Cheltenham 1-0 Oxford United | League One |
Last archived meeting: Oxford United vs Cheltenham on Mar 9, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cheltenham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cheltenham vs Oxford United?
- The Footlab model makes Oxford United the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Cheltenham.
- Where and when is Cheltenham vs Oxford United played?
- Cheltenham vs Oxford United is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.