Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Cheltenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Cheltenham (1,675) and Bristol Rovers (1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cheltenham have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cheltenham win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 4-0 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Cheltenham 1-0 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Cheltenham 0-1 Bristol Rovers | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Cheltenham 1-3 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Bristol Rovers 1-1 Cheltenham | League One |
| Sep 5, 2023 | Bristol Rovers 4-1 Cheltenham | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Cheltenham on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cheltenham sit 14th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Cheltenham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Cheltenham.
- Where and when is Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.