Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ticha, Dolni chiflik
The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Botev Vratsa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Cherno More Varna (1,783) and Botev Vratsa (1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno More Varna have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Botev Vratsa have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-5 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cherno More Varna win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Botev Vratsa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Botev Vratsa 1-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Botev Vratsa 1-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Botev Vratsa 2-3 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 2-1 Botev Vratsa | First League |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 2-1 Botev Vratsa | First League |
Last archived meeting: Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna on Jul 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Vratsa score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Botev Vratsa | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno More Varna sit 10th in First League (4 points from 6 matches) and Botev Vratsa sit 11th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Botev Vratsa.
- Where and when is Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa played?
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ticha, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.