Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets?
Ludogorets starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ludogorets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Ludogorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| May 29, 2026 | Ludogorets 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Ludogorets 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Ludogorets | First League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Ludogorets | First League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Ludogorets 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
Last archived meeting: Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ludogorets score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th in First League (3 points from 6 matches) and Ludogorets sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets played?
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.