Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Arena Arda, Kardzhali
The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
Arda Kardzhali starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arda Kardzhali have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Septemvri Sofia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arda Kardzhali win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Septemvri Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 1-1 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 1-4 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 0-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 1-2 Septemvri Sofia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 0-4 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arda Kardzhali score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arda Kardzhali sit 5th in First League (10 points from 5 matches) and Septemvri Sofia sit 8th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia played?
- Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Arda, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.