Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Arena Arda, Kardzhali
The Footlab AI model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
Arda Kardzhali starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,795 vs 1,627).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arda Kardzhali
4-2-3-1- 10S. Kovachev
- 80L. Kotev
- 39A. Vutov
- 8D. Yankov
- 4David Akintola Idowu
- 26B. Akandzha
- 21V. Velev
- 6V. Popov
- 24M. Paskalev
- 5V. Lyubenov
- 1A. Gospodinov
Septemvri Sofia
4-2-3-1- 29F. Herard
- 5Y. Baurenski
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8B. Penchev
- 33G. Ivanov
- 13K. Önaşçı
- 4M. Hristov
- 26V. Ozornwafor
- 15P. Gospodinov
- 3Sebastian Wade
- 12V. Ivanov
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arda Kardzhali have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Septemvri Sofia have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-5 | First League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arda Kardzhali wins, 1 draw, 2 Septemvri Sofia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 1-1 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 1-4 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 0-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Arda Kardzhali 1-2 Septemvri Sofia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 0-4 Arda Kardzhali | First League |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Arda Kardzhali 2-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arda Kardzhali score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Sofia score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arda Kardzhali sit 6th in First League (17 points from 11 matches) and Septemvri Sofia sit 13th (8 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arda Kardzhali the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia played?
- Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Arda, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.