Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lokomotiv Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Sofia (1,721) and Botev Plovdiv (1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Sofia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Botev Plovdiv have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lokomotiv Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Botev Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 1-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv 3-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 3-2 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Botev Plovdiv 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Botev Plovdiv | First League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-5 Botev Plovdiv | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia on Jul 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Plovdiv score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Botev Plovdiv | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 13th in First League (2 points from 5 matches) and Botev Plovdiv sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Botev Plovdiv the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv played?
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.