Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Varna
The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Spartak Varna (1,715) and Cherno More Varna (1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Varna have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Spartak Varna win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 0-3 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Spartak Varna 1-3 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Spartak Varna 0-2 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| May 7, 2023 | Cherno More Varna 3-2 Spartak Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Varna sit 7th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 10th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 36%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.