Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ticha, Dolni chiflik
The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Cherno More Varna (1,784) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno More Varna have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cherno More Varna win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Cherno More Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno More Varna sit 10th in First League (4 points from 6 matches) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 12th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Where and when is Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv played?
- Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ticha, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.