Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
The Footlab AI model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lokomotiv Sofia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,484 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Sofia (1,702) and Cherno More Varna (1,759).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lokomotiv Sofia
4-2-3-1- 7S. Delev
- 5E. Dost
- 20D. Kostadinov
- 31K. Stanoev
- 16M. Medfai
- 8I. Yordanov
- 91R. Bidounga
- 6Eirô
- 14A. Lyaskov
- 3K. Kostov
- 99M. Velichkov
Cherno More Varna
4-2-3-1- 10Celso Sidney
- 24David Teles
- 71V. Panayotov
- 99I. Bounaas
- 11M. Achi
- 29B. Beyhan
- 37V. Kerchev
- 50E. Tombak
- 5L. Squadrone
- 3Z. Atanasov
- 81K. Tomov
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 05:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Sofia have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-5 | First League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 0-1 | Pro Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Marek(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lokomotiv Sofia wins, 2 draws, 2 Cherno More Varna wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 4-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Lokomotiv Sofia 2-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia on Sep 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 12th in First League (9 points from 13 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 9th (12 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 12 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 9 |
A question about Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna is played on March 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.