Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Sofia (1,721) and Cherno More Varna (1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Sofia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-3 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lokomotiv Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 4-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Lokomotiv Sofia 2-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia | First League |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Lokomotiv Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia on Nov 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Sofia sit 14th in First League (2 points from 5 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 10th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Sofia the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna played?
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna is played on March 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.