CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab AI model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 254-point Elo edge (1,944 vs 1,690).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
CSKA Sofia
4-4-2- 28I. Pittas
- 10J. Zwarts
- 7M. Ebong
- 8S. Sensi
- 6Bruno Jordão
- 99J. Eto'o
- 14T. Ivanov
- 17Á. Martino
- 2Pastor
- 32Facundo Santiago Rodríguez
- 21F. Lapoukhov
Spartak Varna
4-2-3-1- 11Boubacar Hanne
- 19S. Major
- 6José Ricardo Gomes Sousa
- 17T. Marinov
- 82Tomás Silva
- 7Buá
- 76David Valverde
- 44A. Granchov
- 4B. Ivanov
- 45J. Tshitoku
- 23P. Iliev
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:58 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 4-2 | Super Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 CSKA Sofia wins, 2 draws, 0 Spartak Varna wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Spartak Varna 1-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Spartak Varna 0-4 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Jul 26, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| May 13, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 5-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Spartak Varna 0-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Spartak Varna 2-3 CSKA Sofia | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Sofia sit 2nd in First League (27 points from 11 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 7th (13 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 27 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 13 |
A question about CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab AI model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna played?
- CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.