CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 236-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 CSKA Sofia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Spartak Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Spartak Varna 0-4 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Jul 26, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| May 13, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 5-0 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Spartak Varna 0-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Spartak Varna 2-3 CSKA Sofia | Cup |
| Dec 3, 2024 | CSKA Sofia 3-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in First League (13 points from 5 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna played?
- CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.