Septemvri Dragoevo vs Chernomorets Balchik: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Septemvri Dragoevo. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Dragoevo vs Chernomorets Balchik?
Chernomorets Balchik is a heavy favourite: 1,772 Elo points against 1,472, a 301-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 1 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Dragoevo have 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Chernomorets Balchik have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(away) | 4-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Dragoevo score 4.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 1; Chernomorets Balchik score 2.9 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Dragoevo | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| Chernomorets Balchik | 2.9 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 1 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Dragoevo sit 3rd in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Chernomorets Balchik sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Chernomorets Balchik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Dragoevo vs Chernomorets Balchik?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Septemvri Dragoevo.
- Where and when is Septemvri Dragoevo vs Chernomorets Balchik played?
- Septemvri Dragoevo vs Chernomorets Balchik is played on November 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.