Chester vs Morecambe: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Deva Stadium, Chester, Cheshire
The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Morecambe. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chester vs Morecambe?
Chester starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (1,927 vs 1,661).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chester have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Morecambe have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chorley(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Crewe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Harborough Town(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Chester win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Morecambe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Chester 2-0 Morecambe | FA Cup |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Morecambe 1-1 Chester | FA Cup |
| Jul 16, 2022 | Chester 1-1 Morecambe | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Chester score 1.3 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Morecambe score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester | 1.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Morecambe | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chester sit 1st in National League - North (12 points from 4 matches) and Morecambe sit 24th (1 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 24 | Morecambe | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chester vs Morecambe?
- The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Morecambe.
- Where and when is Chester vs Morecambe played?
- Chester vs Morecambe is played on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Deva Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.