Merthyr Town vs Morecambe: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Morecambe. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,846 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
Merthyr Town starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,777).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merthyr Town vs Morecambe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Morecambe
Not enough data to predict the Morecambe lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Morecambe have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Truro City(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Worksop Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Southport(home) | 2-0 | FA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Morecambe score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
| Morecambe | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 15th in National League - North (15 points from 12 matches) and Morecambe sit 19th (14 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
A question about Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Morecambe.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Morecambe played?
- Merthyr Town vs Morecambe is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.