Buxton vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Silverlands, Buxton, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Buxton the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Buxton vs Merthyr Town?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Buxton (1,883) and Merthyr Town (1,871).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Buxton have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Merthyr Town have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bedford Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Southport(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hereford(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warrington Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Buxton win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Merthyr Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Merthyr Town 1-3 Buxton | National League - North |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Buxton 1-2 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Buxton 2-0 Merthyr Town | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Merthyr Town vs Buxton on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Buxton score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buxton | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Buxton sit 14th in National League - North (4 points from 4 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 12th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Buxton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Buxton vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab model makes Buxton the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Buxton vs Merthyr Town played?
- Buxton vs Merthyr Town is played on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Silverlands, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.