Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 33Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Bristol Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Chesterfield (1,795) and Bristol Rovers (1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Chelsea U21(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Chesterfield win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 2-3 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Chesterfield 3-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Bristol Rovers 2-0 Chesterfield | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 18, 2017 | Bristol Rovers 2-1 Chesterfield | League One |
| Nov 26, 2016 | Chesterfield 3-2 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Feb 1, 2014 | Chesterfield 3-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 16th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Bristol Rovers.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers is played on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.