Bristol Rovers vs York: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 34Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Memorial Stadium, Bristol, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Bristol Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol Rovers vs York?
York starts as the favourite with a 224-point Elo edge (1,983 vs 1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; York have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bristol Rovers win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 York win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | York 3-2 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Apr 30, 2016 | York 1-4 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Dec 12, 2015 | Bristol Rovers 2-1 York | League Two |
| Jan 18, 2014 | York 0-0 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Nov 19, 2013 | York 2-3 Bristol Rovers | FA Cup |
| Nov 8, 2013 | Bristol Rovers 3-3 York | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: York vs Bristol Rovers on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; York score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol Rovers sit 10th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and York sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol Rovers vs York?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Bristol Rovers.
- Where and when is Bristol Rovers vs York played?
- Bristol Rovers vs York is played on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Memorial Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.