Chesterfield vs York: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs York?
York starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (1,979 vs 1,791).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; York have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chesterfield win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 York win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2024 | York 2-1 Chesterfield | National League |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Chesterfield 4-0 York | National League |
| Apr 7, 2023 | Chesterfield 1-3 York | National League |
| Oct 25, 2022 | York 1-1 Chesterfield | National League |
| Jan 28, 2014 | York 0-2 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Oct 22, 2013 | Chesterfield 2-2 York | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; York score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 16th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and York sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs York?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs York played?
- Chesterfield vs York is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.