Churriana Vega vs Atlético Porcuna: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Churriana Vega the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Atlético Porcuna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Churriana Vega vs Atlético Porcuna?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Churriana Vega (1,744) and Atlético Porcuna (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Churriana Vega have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Atlético Porcuna have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Motril(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | El Palo(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Churriana Vega win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Atlético Porcuna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna 0-0 Churriana Vega | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Churriana Vega 1-0 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Porcuna vs Churriana Vega on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Churriana Vega score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Porcuna score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Churriana Vega | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Atlético Porcuna | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Churriana Vega sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (52 points from 34 matches) and Atlético Porcuna sit 9th (46 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Churriana Vega | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 52 |
| 9 | Atlético Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 39 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Churriana Vega vs Atlético Porcuna?
- The Footlab model makes Churriana Vega the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Atlético Porcuna.
- Where and when is Churriana Vega vs Atlético Porcuna played?
- Churriana Vega vs Atlético Porcuna is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.